Gosar Acting Like an Incumbent

          In most congressional elections, the incumbent has a huge advantage, as reelection rates for incumbents are around 90%. Usually, incumbents try to be fairly passive and maintain their lead, while the challenger must be very aggressive in order to gain a similar level of name recognition. In Arizona’s 1^st District, it seems as though the roles have been reversed. Democrat incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick has challenged Republican Paul Gosar to five debates, yet he has backed out of all of them. In a race where the incumbent has fallen very hard in the polls, Gosar just needs to protect his lead and I believe he will come away with the victory on Tuesday.



Kirkpatrick has not taken advantage of her incumbency



            According to Paul Herrnson’s book Congressional Elections, “the big leads most incumbents enjoy at the beginning of the election season make defending those leads the major objective of their campaigns. Incumbent campaigns usually focus more on reinforcing and mobilizing existing bases of support than on winning new ones.” It appears Kirkpatrick has done a pretty bad job of defending her huge lead, and now she is on the offensive, challenging Gosar to public debates, in an effort to change the public’s mind on the Republican challenger.



This should be Gosar on Election Day



            According to blogforarizona.com, Gosar has backed out of all five debates, a very strange strategy for a challenger. Herrnson points out that challengers usually need to have the aggressive campaigns, in order to build name recognition and give voters reason to support them. It appears that Gosar has been so successful at doing so far, and he does not want to do anything to hurt his chances. According to a blog on thehill.com, Democrats have been complaining that Republicans are trying to “run out the clock” for this election season. The blog points out that, “Many Republican challengers hold slender leads in the polls and don't want to put themselves in situations — exchanges with reporters, debates — where that could be jeopardized.” This seems to be Gosar’s current strategy, and based on recent polls, he will enjoy victory in this election.

Candidates Try Not to Beat Themselves



AZ's First District (in pink) covers a huge area



            It is widely known that political campaigns can be riddled with negativity and lies, and that politicians will do just about anything to get elected. Certain elements of this can be found in the race for Arizona’s 1st District. In a district filled with a wide variety of issues and many types of people, incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick and Republican challenger Paul Gosar are trying to appeal to constituents in any way possible, including the use of attack ads in many instances, and a general vagueness on the most controversial issues.  

          Due to the many polarizing issues that are relevant in this election, the candidates in Arizona’s 1st are playing it safe on issue positions, not wanting to turn off potential voters. An article in the Arizona Daily Sun illustrates how campaign advisors are telling candidates to avoid taking too many positions on major issues because it is polarizing. Since actual issues are being avoided, there have been an abundance of attack ads. Gosar has been accused of being a flip-flopper, a mud-slinger, a “blatant” liar, and an out of touch millionaire who has evaded taxes. Kirkpatrick has also been accused of lying, along with supporting reckless policies and having “fallen lock-step with Nancy Pelosi.”
 



Gosar hopes voters feel this way about Pelosi 



            The dangers of being too specific on policy positions are especially grave in a district with many polarizing issues. According to Sydney Hay, a former Republican candidate for the House in the district, she was advised to poll name recognition above hot issues, and that she would adjust her message depending on the town she was speaking in. “In mining towns, I would talk a lot more about natural resources issues than I would talk about that in Prescott," Hay said in the same Arizona Daily Sun piece. It seems as though Gosar and Kirkpatrick are following the lead of Hay and most other congressional candidates, in that they are playing it safe on their own issues, but wildly attacking each other’s views.

Challengers Need to Get Their Name Out

             Incumbents typically enjoy victory in congressional races, as it is very difficult for challengers to get their name out there and convince people to vote for them. The key for challengers to create a competitive election is by making voters aware of their virtues, while proving that the incumbent has serious shortcomings. However, this can only be achieved if the challenger has the campaign finances to get their name and message out there. In Arizona’s First District, Republican challenger Paul Gosar has been successful at raising money for his campaign, and is using it to bolster support for himself, while turning the tide against incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick.

            

               In The Politics of Congressional Elections, Gary Jacobson stresses how difficult it is for challengers to succeed in congressional elections. Incumbents have the major advantage of name recognition, which is crucial in elections where voters typically do not know too much about the actual policies of the candidates. Jacobson mentions how incumbents do not lose elections by failing to garner support based on general performance. They lose when challengers are able to successfully project of positive image of themselves, and persuade voters that the incumbent is a liability. Gosar has successfully done this by appealing to the conservative district with his Republican rhetoric, and by deriding Kirkpatrick as a loyalist to the "socialist" policy initiatives of President Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Gosar has come very far in a district that was "leaning Democrat" in early September, as The Hill, a Washington D.C. newspaper, recently released a poll that gave Gosar a 46 percent to 39 percent lead.

              Jacobson stresses how important campaign fundraising and spending is for challengers to spread their name, and Gosar has done just this. According to a Politico.com article, Gosar is in line to receive a combined $1 million from the "60 Plus Association" and "Americans for Prosperity". This donation is a tremendous boost for Gosar, as he is taking away the financial edge that incumbents usually enjoy away from Kirkpatrick. Gosar will now be able to significantly increase ad campaigns down the stretch, and reach as many potential voters as possible throughout the next few weeks leading up to Election Day.

How to Promote Your Own Campaign While Bashing Your Opponent



           A candidates’ ability to communicate with their targeted supporters is a very important aspect of a congressional election. Candidates must be able to convey a message to potential voters regarding their persona and policy stances, while at the same time finding effective ways to bring down their opponent’s campaign. So far in the race for Arizona’s 1^st District seat, Republican challenger Paul Gosar has been very successful at maintaining a clear, consistent message regarding his policy. In terms of negative campaigning, both Gosar and incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick have been going back and forth at each other trying to portray the other negatively.



Glenn Beck would certainly approve of Gosar's campaign message



            In Paul Hernnson’s book Congressional Elections, he points out that a well run campaign puts forward the same coherent message at all times. Gosar has done a tremendous job of appealing to conservative voters with his unfailing right-wing rhetoric. Gosar portrays himself as a small-business owner with a traditional conservative agenda. Gosar favors private health care, low government spending, protecting gun rights, and permanently reinstating the Bush tax cuts. Kirkpatrick on the other hand has struggled with the message she wants to send to voters. As a Democrat trying to appeal to a relatively conservative district, Kirkpatrick has stated her disapproval with Obama. Furthermore, according to an article from October 5th in the Arizona Republic, Kirkpatrick has voted with her party 86% of the time, which is a very low percentage.

 



Kirkpatrick has been turning on her fellow Democrats lately



            While Gosar has succeeded at promoting his own campaign, he is less effective when it comes to bashing Kirkpatrick. Gosar has tried to portray Kirkpatrick as a loyal, liberal ally of President Obama, and also points out her vote for the stimulus bill, and the health care bill. That being said, Kirkpatrick really is not that liberal, as proved by her relative lack of support for party policies. Kirkpatrick has tried to frame Gosar as a millionaire who has been late on his taxes, which quite frankly is a ridiculous tactic. Kirkpatrick needs to focus on more relevant issues if she wants to be successful in this campaign.

The Battle for Fundraising in Arizona's 1st

           Whether or not we like to believe it, money plays a huge role in American politics, and the ability of candidates to raise money for their campaigns is crucial to winning an election. Typically, incumbents have an advantage when it comes to raising funds, at least earlier on in a campaign. Republican challenger Dr. Paul Gosar will need to work hard to out-raise incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick, as she has a major edge financially.

            Political Actions Committees (PAC’s) are a major source of monetary donations to candidates, especially incumbents. This occurs because incumbents have much more political clout and are more likely to succeed in the election. According to the last update from August, Kirkpatrick had raised $1.4 million, with $635,250 coming from PAC’s. Gosar on the other hand, had raised a total of $414,486, with only $43,500 coming from PAC’s. Kirkpatrick clearly has had a financial edge so far being the incumbent, but if Gosar continues his strong run things could change as Election Day draws closer. 

            While PAC’s are an important source of donations, congressional candidates must identify groups of sympathetic potential donors and create a pitch that will appeal to them, and encourage them to donate to their campaigns. Kirkpatrick and Gosar have done a good job of appealing to likely donors, as both have tapped into their former careers looking for financial help. Kirkpatrick, a former attorney, has had over 300 donations from attorneys and those who work for attorneys. Gosar on the other hand, has had over 400 donations from those in the dental field.

            While the race in Arizona’s First District has tightened up since this article was written on September 5^th, it is clearly much more difficult for challengers to raise money than incumbents. Kirkpatrick has a major edge from PAC donations, and Gosar will have to rely more on fundraising from individual donors. However, PAC’s might be more likely to donate to Gosar in the coming weeks considering he has proven himself to be a serious contender over the last month.

Kirkpatrick/Gosar Campaign Finance Data